The number of cruise ship passengers sailing to the islands of the Caribbean is expected to drop 5 percent this year, but that seems likely to be a temporary phenomenon which will be reversed in 2010 with the debut of Royal Caribbean and NCL's huge new ships.

The reason for the highly unusual year-to-year decline in passengers sailing to the Caribbean seems to have less to do with the popularity of the destination, and more to do with the desire of cruise lines to move ships to markets that are currently booming.

Royal Caribbean, Carnival and NCL are all putting more of their newest and largest ships in Europe this summer to take advantage both of the popularity of the Mediterranean and the strength of the Euro.

The global nature of the cruise ship business enables the industry to move ships to stronger markets during economic downturns, Carnival CEO Gerry Cahill observed at this week's Seatrade Convention in Miami.

Royal Caribbean's new Independence of the Seas, which debuts in May, will become the first to the line's largest Freedom-class ships to spend the summer sailing out of Southampton to the Mediterranean.

It will be joined in Mediterranean waters by Carnival's newest and largest ship, Carnival Splendor, which debuts in July and also will remain in Europe through the summer.

Royal Caribbean will have a record seven ships sailing European itineraries this summer, while Carnival will have two ships in Europe for the first time.

Meanwhile, NCL will have its two newest ships -- Norwegian Jade and Norwegian Gem -- in the Mediterranean this summer, and plans to leave Norwegian Jade in the Mediterranean this winter for the first time.

Two other cruise lines, Costa and Celebrity, also are attempting to take advantage of strong South American economies by putting more ships into those markets.

But the Caribbean remains far and away the largest venue for cruise ships, and Carnival's Cahill made it clear that cruise line has no long-term plans to deemphasize the Caribbean.

"The Caribbean is still the best cruising place in the world to me," Cahill said.

He also noted that 46 percent of Carnival's revenue comes from guests who live outside the United States. And for Europeans, one of the most exciting places for a cruise vacation will probably always be the Caribbean.